Tax policy in Britain

Ahead of the upcoming Spending Review, Hold Sway worked with the TUC on a poll of Great Britain to help understand voter attitudes to taxes.

We found widespread support for increased taxes on wealthy people and big businesses: these policies are supported by an overall majority, and have especially strong support among key voter groups: people who switched from the Conservatives to Labour at the 2024 General Election , and people who voted Labour at that election but are now considering a vote for Reform UK.

Besides a sense that wealthy people and big business are not paying their fair share of taxes, what motivates this support is the risk of public services suffering. There’s clear majority of support for increase wealth and big business taxes specifically in order to prevent cuts to public services.

Data tables for this poll can be downloaded here.

Employment Rights: protection from harassment

The Employment Rights Bill includes measures requiring employers to protect workers from harassment by customers and other third parties. Hold Sway’s polling for the TUC tested the popularity of this measure, and found it is supported by 79% of the population, with only 14% against it.

This hasn’t stopped opposition parties from trying to frame the harassment measure as a crackdown on pub banter, attempting to argue that an overheard conversation about a controversial topic in a pub could lead to litigation. It’s surprising to me that they are pursuing this line of argument, not just because of the poll finding but also because we looked at it in focus groups. When talking to a group who’d voted Labour in 2024 but are now considering Reform, I read out lines on “pub banter” that Nigel Farage had used on GB News. The voters found it perplexing that anyone would interpret the Bill in that way, and the argument in no way dampened their support for it.

The poll findings, with commentary from the TUC and me, were covered by the Daily Mirror on 12th May, here.

You can download data tables on this poll question here.

Employment Rights Bill polling for the TUC

Hold Sway was commissioned by the TUC to help understand the British public’s point of view on the Employment Rights Bill, legislation that is currently before Parliament.

We conducted 6 focus groups among swing voters in February 2025, followed by a nationally representative online poll of 5000 people that ran from 4-9 March.

What we found is a huge number of voters still know little to nothing about this legislation: 26% have heard “a great deal” or “a fair amount” about the Employment Rights Bill, leaving almost three quarters of the public unaware.

The poll was designed to show how information and messaging about the Bill affects voter attitudes, and the good news for the government is that as they hear about it, people’s attitudes toward the government become more positive. Among the public at large, favourable views of the government rise from 21 to 27% (+6), and unfavourables fall from 59 to 52% (-7), for a net gain of 13 percentage points.

It’s important to note that this was a balanced exercise. To simulate the actual debate around the Bill, we showed tough arguments against it, drawn from opposition parties and negative media coverage, as well as the changes that it will bring in and the arguments in favour. It’s after that robust debate that we see favourability to the government rising. 

Isolating the views of swing voters, we find a similar positive shift in the government’s reputation. People who picked the Tories in 2019 and Labour in 2024 improve their favourability to the government by a net 13 points, and 2024 Labour voters who would now vote Reform become 17 points more favourable on net. People choosing the Green Party or an independent candidate see favourability rising as well.

The poll’s findings are covered by the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot here.

You can download data tables for the poll here.

Focus group findings on EU renegotiation

Hold Sway ran focus groups for the Trades Union Congress (TUC) during February. The groups showed that swing voters endorse Britain developing a closer relationship with the EU: people felt that Brexit had not been a success, particularly for the economy, and that it would be sensible for Britain to try for a better deal.

Shown political messaging for and against a renegotiated deal, voters were more persuaded by the arguments for it. These findings were written up in the Guardian:

Britain’s biggest unions call for much closer UK-EU ties amid ‘volatile’ global economy