TUC survey on racism and discrimination at work
In January 2026 Hold Sway conducted a nationally representative survey of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) working people in Great Britain on behalf of the TUC. The survey investigated experiences of racism and discrimination in the workplace.
Tables illustrating key findings from the survey are available here.
New political strategy survey from Hold Sway covered by Comment is Freed
I’m pleased to introduce the brand new Hold Sway Political Strategy Tracker. This is the first in what I hope will become a long-running series. For the first wave I’ve partnered with Britain’s leading politics Substack, Comment is Freed. You can read Sam Freedman’s analysis of the survey here (I firmly recommend subscribing if you haven’t done so already). Data tables relating to Sam’s article are here.
There will be plenty more to say about the findings in the coming weeks but for now, just a few words about how this survey thinks about the electorate.
Academic analysis of voting behaviour in Britain this century shows sharply rising voter volatility: old party identities have broken down and voters have felt more comfortable switching between parties from one election to the next. With this has come a declining share of the vote for the two largest parties of the last century, Labour and the Conservatives. Their collective share dropped below 60% at the 2024 election, comfortably its lowest since the Second World War.
At the same time, the electorate appears to have become more polarised. Increasingly, academics and analysts talk about “bloc voting” in which voters pick either the right or the left, and vote for a party within one of those categories, rather than switching between blocs. For example, there was a great deal more movement from the Conservatives to Reform at the 2024 election than there was from the Conservatives to Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens. Stan Greenberg’s recent polling and analysis has focused on this polarisation, and how the Brexit divide has been replaced by one centred around Trump, immigration, climate and net zero policies, and wokeness.
My contribution to this ongoing discussion is an effort to measure and analyse the “blocs” of the British electorate, with a particular focus on the group of voters that remains open to voting for either the left/progressive bloc or the right wing bloc. In this survey, what I’m calling the progressive parties comprises Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, Scottish National Party, and Plaid Cymru. The right wing parties are the Conservatives and Reform UK. A voter is defined as belonging to the “progressive bloc” if they currently intend to vote for one of the progressive parties, and do not have a “good” or “fair chance” of voting for either of the other bloc’s parties. A “centre left” voter is voting for a progressive party, but does have a “good” or “fair chance” of voting for the Tories or Reform. A “centre right” voter is currently with a right wing party, but gives themselves a chance of voting for at least one of the progressive parties. And a “right wing bloc” voter is a Tory or Reform voter who doesn’t give themselves a chance of voting for any of the progressive parties.
Breaking the electorate down in this way throws up a number of insights, both about the kind of people who might be described as swing voters, and about the strategic conundrums facing the major parties. For much more on this, again, check out Comment is Freed.
Migration policy survey for the TUC
Recent polling by Hold Sway on behalf of the TUC shows strong support among the British public for migration policy proposals:
Fining companies who exploit migrant labour to undercut local workers: 75% feel positive about this policy.
Set up a Fair Work Agency to investigate bad employers and enforce workers’ rights: 71% positive.
Make companies legally responsible for labour abuses in their supply chain: 68% positive.
Increase funding for labour inspectors: 69% positive.
Blacklist companies guilty of serious exploitation from winning public contracts: 73% positive.
The survey shows that across these proposals, support is higher among key voter groups: those who switched from Conservative to Labour between the 2019 and 2024 General Elections; and those who voted Labour in 2024 but now would support Reform.
Data tables for these results can be found here.
Support for tax changes in Britain
Hold Sway polled the British public in August on behalf of the TUC. New findings released today show strong public support for a modernised and simplified tax system; and for higher taxes on gambling, banks and capital gains.
Our June polling for the TUC also showed the potential for improved views of the UK government if it raises taxes in order to fund public services.
Tables for the August poll are available here.
Tables for the June poll are available here.
Tax policy in Britain
Ahead of the upcoming Spending Review, Hold Sway worked with the TUC on a poll of Great Britain to help understand voter attitudes to taxes.
We found widespread support for increased taxes on wealthy people and big businesses: these policies are supported by an overall majority, and have especially strong support among key voter groups: people who switched from the Conservatives to Labour at the 2024 General Election , and people who voted Labour at that election but are now considering a vote for Reform UK.
Besides a sense that wealthy people and big business are not paying their fair share of taxes, what motivates this support is the risk of public services suffering. There’s clear majority of support for increase wealth and big business taxes specifically in order to prevent cuts to public services.
Data tables for this poll can be downloaded here.
Employment Rights: protection from harassment
The Employment Rights Bill includes measures requiring employers to protect workers from harassment by customers and other third parties. Hold Sway’s polling for the TUC tested the popularity of this measure, and found it is supported by 79% of the population, with only 14% against it.
This hasn’t stopped opposition parties from trying to frame the harassment measure as a crackdown on pub banter, attempting to argue that an overheard conversation about a controversial topic in a pub could lead to litigation. It’s surprising to me that they are pursuing this line of argument, not just because of the poll finding but also because we looked at it in focus groups. When talking to a group who’d voted Labour in 2024 but are now considering Reform, I read out lines on “pub banter” that Nigel Farage had used on GB News. The voters found it perplexing that anyone would interpret the Bill in that way, and the argument in no way dampened their support for it.
The poll findings, with commentary from the TUC and me, were covered by the Daily Mirror on 12th May, here.
You can download data tables on this poll question here.
Employment Rights Bill polling for the TUC
Hold Sway was commissioned by the TUC to help understand the British public’s point of view on the Employment Rights Bill, legislation that is currently before Parliament.
We conducted 6 focus groups among swing voters in February 2025, followed by a nationally representative online poll of 5000 people that ran from 4-9 March.
What we found is a huge number of voters still know little to nothing about this legislation: 26% have heard “a great deal” or “a fair amount” about the Employment Rights Bill, leaving almost three quarters of the public unaware.
The poll was designed to show how information and messaging about the Bill affects voter attitudes, and the good news for the government is that as they hear about it, people’s attitudes toward the government become more positive. Among the public at large, favourable views of the government rise from 21 to 27% (+6), and unfavourables fall from 59 to 52% (-7), for a net gain of 13 percentage points.
It’s important to note that this was a balanced exercise. To simulate the actual debate around the Bill, we showed tough arguments against it, drawn from opposition parties and negative media coverage, as well as the changes that it will bring in and the arguments in favour. It’s after that robust debate that we see favourability to the government rising.
Isolating the views of swing voters, we find a similar positive shift in the government’s reputation. People who picked the Tories in 2019 and Labour in 2024 improve their favourability to the government by a net 13 points, and 2024 Labour voters who would now vote Reform become 17 points more favourable on net. People choosing the Green Party or an independent candidate see favourability rising as well.
The poll’s findings are covered by the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot here.
You can download data tables for the poll here.
Focus group findings on EU renegotiation
Hold Sway ran focus groups for the Trades Union Congress (TUC) during February. The groups showed that swing voters endorse Britain developing a closer relationship with the EU: people felt that Brexit had not been a success, particularly for the economy, and that it would be sensible for Britain to try for a better deal.
Shown political messaging for and against a renegotiated deal, voters were more persuaded by the arguments for it. These findings were written up in the Guardian:
Britain’s biggest unions call for much closer UK-EU ties amid ‘volatile’ global economy